Kansas City Triathlon - Pre-Race

"I predict you'll be crumpled on the ground crying like a little girl...before the race even starts."

Well, tomorrow is the Kansas City Triathlon.  I picked up my packet yesterday afternoon and got my bib, swim cap and a few goodies.  After last week's race, I can't decide if I'm more nervous about this race or less.  Overall I think I'm just excited to finally get out there and race.  As you know, last week was fine, but canceling the swim was kind of a buzz kill.

The good news is that today and tomorrow we're going to have the warmest temperatures of the year in Kansas City.  It looks like it will be about 70 degrees when the race starts and will likely reacy the mid to upper 80's sometime tomorrow.  There's officially no chance of rain, so it should be perfect!  The only unknown is what the wind is going to do, right now they're predicting 20mph winds out of the south, which could suck...we'll have to see.  (Usually there's less wind in the morning, so perhaps it won't be that bad.) 

The other news (not sure if it's good or bad) is that the lake water temperature is in the low 60's right now.  So definitely a bit cold and wetsuit legal, but probably not hypothermia inducing cold; which is always a bonus.

The other exciting part of tomorrow is a bunch of family members are coming out to watch me embarass myself race.  I have a few little surprises for them to keep them occupied during the race (it could get a little boring after a few hours) that I might tell you about tomorrow.

Race Prediction 
Swim 1500m (.9 miles) - This is going to be open water, a bit cold and lots of competitors around.  Frankly, not a situation I'm particularly comfortable with, even though I fancy myself a strong swimmer.  Remember, last week (when the swim was canceled) was supposed to be my run through on a short course in open water.  No such luck.  However, based on my pool times and doing a little conversion, I predict I'll finish the swim in 25 minutes.

T1 - Last week both transitions were under a minute, however, I didn't have to take off a wetsuit last week, so T1 should be slower than last week.  I anticipate it taking 2 minutes.

Bike 40km (24.9 miles) -  I am SLOW on the bike, so I'm frankly a little worried about this leg of the race.  If I take the pace I went last week, which was only half the distance of this week, the bike will take me 92 minutes.  Although maintaining that pace for double the distance seems unlikely, I'm going to predict 95 minutes on the bike.

T2 - I think I can keep T2 under a minute (or close to) because it should be similar to last week, which was less than a minute.  Thus, I predict 1 minute for T2.

Run 10k (6.2 miles) - Last week, again at half the distance I was averaging a little over a 9 minute mile.  Let's assume I can keep to about that pace for the full six miles (unlikely, but I'm an optimist) that would put the run at just under an hour.  I'm changing my strategy slightly on the run and I'm going to walk the aid stations (one per mile) to make sure I get a few calories and water; last week I think I was a bit dehydrated at the end fo the race so this may help me maintain a better pace.  I'm predicting 60 minutes for the 10k.

Total - Added together above, that predicts a finishing time of three hours, three minutes which is probably pretty accurate.  If I finish in under three hours, I'll be pretty ecstatic.  I guess we'll see tomorrow.